Every project on this site carries one of three verdicts about whether it is worth holding for the next ten years.

Hold. A project likely to still be here in a decade, with a token that does real work and no finding that its holders are being extracted from, misled, or replaced by insiders.

Watch. A project that could go either way over the same horizon. The business may be real, but how the project is owned, run, or growing sits in a gray area that keeps the case from settling.

Avoid. A project where specific reasons not to hold have been found. Either the token has no clear reason to exist, or the way it works or is governed carries a defect that survives every argument in its favour.

None of these verdicts is a price call: a Hold does not mean buy now, and an Avoid does not mean sell now. Each is a judgment about the token itself, not the company or the technology behind it. A company can sign a client every week, and none of that revenue has to reach its token; a technology can be sound while the token routed through it has no clear job.

The token is what a person is buying, and the token is what these pages judge.

What Hedera is

Hedera is a network for recording transactions and running small programs, the way Ethereum or Solana are, but built and governed differently from either. It handles payments, issues tokens, and runs smart contracts, self-executing programs that live on the network and carry out an agreement automatically once its conditions are met. Hedera says it has processed more than 71 billion transactions since it launched, and on one recent day alone it handled 559,887 more. If a single day like that held for a full year, it would put Hedera somewhere around two hundred million transactions annually.

What sets Hedera apart is who is allowed to run it. Most networks like this let anyone become a validator, a computer that helps confirm and record transactions, usually by putting up collateral. Hedera does not work that way. Every validating computer on the network is operated by one of a fixed group of roughly 39 organizations, named companies, universities and other institutions, called the Governing Council. Nobody outside that group can run a node. Nobody outside that group can vote on a change to how the network works, and that includes someone holding HBAR, Hedera's own token.

Hedera calls the method it uses to order and confirm transactions "hashgraph" rather than a blockchain, a different technical approach whose patents its creators, Leemon Baird, Mance Harmon and Paul Madsen, filed before founding the company Swirlds and later Hedera itself. How hashgraph works is not what this page assesses. What it assesses is HBAR, the token, and whether someone holding it for the next ten years is holding something worth keeping.

Source: Hedera whitepaper; Hedera on CoinGecko

Why HBAR exists

HBAR pays for the network's own upkeep. Every transaction on Hedera costs a small fee, paid in HBAR, and that fee is what funds the computers doing the work of confirming transactions. Without a token that costs something to use, there would be nothing to stop the network from being flooded with free, worthless transactions.

HBAR also secures the network in a second way. Anyone holding HBAR can stake it, meaning they lock it up in support of one of the Council's validating computers, and in return receive a share of the rewards that computer earns. Staking does not grant a vote. It is a financial relationship, not a governance one: it can earn a holder a return, but it does not give them any say in what Hedera does next.

Both of these are real reasons for HBAR to exist that have nothing to do with anyone expecting its price to rise.

The money is real, and it has been shrinking

Measured over the most recent three months and projected across a full year, Hedera's network is currently earning fees at a rate of about $265,769 a year. Measured directly over the most recent twelve months, on the days that have a recorded figure, the number is $326,904. Both figures measure the same thing: the fees people pay in HBAR to use the network, added up.

Neither is a small-sample fluke. A day-by-day record of these fees going back to September 2024 shows a network that started out earning more, and has earned steadily less since. In its first weeks on record the network was taking in over ten thousand dollars a day. For most of 2025 that had fallen to one to three thousand dollars a day. By early 2026 it had fallen further still, at times below five hundred dollars a day, before ticking back up slightly in the months since.

That decline is not a data gap. Some days in the record genuinely have no fee figure at all, periods when the tool that measures Hedera's fees appears to have gone offline rather than periods where the network processed nothing, and those gaps are excluded from the totals above rather than counted as zero. What remains, on the days that were actually measured, is a real and sustained decline in what the network earns.

Source: Hedera fees, DefiLlama

Where that money goes

A portion of every fee is paid out to HBAR holders who have staked their tokens behind a Council member's validating computer, through an account the network keeps for that purpose. That much is real: staking HBAR is a way to earn something from the network's activity.

How large that portion actually is cannot be answered from the data available for this assessment. Hedera's own transaction records add up every fee collected without separating how much of each fee went to stakers, how much went to the Council member operating the node, and how much went to the network's own treasury. It is accurate to say that some money reaches HBAR holders who stake. It is not currently possible to say how much.

Source: Hedera fees, DefiLlama

The applications built on Hedera have shrunk

Beyond the network itself, a separate set of applications run on top of Hedera: lending platforms, exchanges, and other financial tools that hold user funds. The total value of the crypto held inside those applications is one common way of judging how much real, active use a network is getting.

At its peak, applications built on Hedera held $213,960,353 worth of user funds. Today, that figure stands at $53,195,969, a fall of about seventy-five percent from the peak. This is not a rounding difference or a temporary dip: it is measured against a chain-level record confirmed to belong to Hedera specifically, not borrowed from another network by mistake.

A shrinking pool of locked funds does not necessarily mean HBAR itself is worth less. It does mean the ecosystem of applications that Hedera was meant to support has, so far, not held onto the activity it once had.

Source: Hedera TVL, DefiLlama

The price, against the earning

Hedera's market value, the price of every HBAR in existence multiplied together, is $3,995,808,699. Its fees, annualised from the most recent three months, come to about $265,769 a year.

Divide one by the other and Hedera is priced at roughly 15,000 times its current yearly fee income. For comparison, a wireless network project this framework has previously used as its example of an extreme, speculative valuation traded at roughly 87,000 times its own annual fees. Hedera is not at that extreme, but it is much closer to it than to a business priced on what it currently earns: a market pricing something at fifteen thousand times its yearly income is pricing what it might become, not what it is doing today.

There is a real counter-argument, and it is worth stating plainly. Hedera's own numbers on total transaction volume suggest genuine, large-scale usage: over 71 billion transactions since launch, and more than half a million on a single recent day. A high price against a small fee total does not automatically mean a network is unused. It can also mean the network charges very little per transaction, by design, and Hedera does. The gap between price and fee income is real, but it does not by itself prove the network is empty.

Source: Hedera on CoinGecko; Hedera fees, DefiLlama

The supply is closed, and ownership is not concentrated

All fifty billion HBAR that will ever exist already exists. There is nothing left to unlock, and no scheduled release still to come: the current supply and the final supply are the same number.

That supply is split four ways. About half, 49.4%, is set aside for the ecosystem and open-source development. Another 24.2% went to people who bought HBAR through purchase agreements before it was publicly tradable. 18.2% funds network governance and operations. The remaining 8.2%, the closest thing to a founder or insider share in this breakdown, covers the initial cost of building the network and its licensing.

The people who built Hedera are also, by the network's own account, no longer running it day to day. Leemon Baird and Mance Harmon, the founders named in the whitepaper, stepped down from their executive roles as of 1 May 2022.

Source: Hedera whitepaper

Who decides what Hedera becomes

Every decision about how Hedera works runs through the Governing Council, the same fixed group of roughly 39 institutions that operates every validating computer on the network. The Council approves every upgrade. It decides what changes and when. HBAR holders, whether they hold one token or a million, have no documented vote in any of it.

Hedera's own whitepaper says this structure was modeled on the original governance system of the company that later became Visa, founded in 1968. The whitepaper also says the Council's diversity of membership, spanning industries and countries, is meant to keep any single member from gaining control of the network on their own.

That is a stated intention, not a guarantee. Nothing in the network's design stops the Council, acting together, from deciding to change Hedera in a way its token holders would not choose for themselves. The safeguard is that thirty-nine independent institutions are unlikely to agree on something harmful, not that a token holder has any way to stop them if they did.

Source: Hedera whitepaper

The one exploit in the record

In March 2023, an attacker found a flaw in a low-level shortcut Hedera's smart contract system uses, called a precompile, and used it to drain funds from several decentralized exchanges built on the network. The stolen funds, roughly $600,000 across the affected exchanges, were moved off Hedera entirely through a bridging service called HashPort.

Hedera published its own detailed account of the attack and the fix that followed within days. One of the exchanges that lost funds, Pangolin, published its own account several weeks later, reaching the same total and adding detail Hedera's account did not: the time its team was first alerted, how much each individual exchange lost, and the attacker's wallet address on a separate network the stolen funds were routed through.

No comparable incident appears in the record since. The 2023 exploit remains the one confirmed loss-of-funds event tied to Hedera's smart contract system.

Source: Hedera's own analysis; Pangolin's postmortem

What Watch means for someone holding HBAR

Hedera is a network that already moves real, large-scale volume, run entirely by a fixed group of institutions rather than by anyone who simply chooses to hold its token.

The case in its favour is genuinely strong on the token's own terms. The entire fifty billion HBAR supply already exists, with nothing left to unlock. Ownership is not concentrated: the largest single share goes to the ecosystem, not to founders or insiders, and the people who built the network stepped back from running it years ago. The network handles a real and substantial volume of transactions, and the one serious security incident on record was disclosed by Hedera itself, fixed, and has not recurred.

The case against it is just as concrete. A council of about 39 institutions, structured after the original governance model of the company that became Visa, runs every validating computer and approves every change, and HBAR holders have no vote in any of that. The applications built on top of the network have lost about three-quarters of the funds they once held. And the network's price sits at roughly fifteen thousand times what it currently earns in fees, a gap the market is choosing to read as confidence in what Hedera might become rather than a reflection of what it earns now.

Watch does not mean buy now. It means the case for holding Hedera over the next ten years could still break either way, resting on whether the applications built on it recover and whether a council of institutions proves to be a stable way to run a network for the long term.

Someone who owns HBAR owns a stake in a network that already works at real scale and cannot have its token supply diluted further, run by a fixed group of institutions in whose decisions they have no vote, from a network whose fee income may or may not reach them personally in a way that cannot currently be measured.

ROI through the years

Bought and held to 9 September 2026, never traded. HEDERA is younger than the 10-year window, so that row is everything since it started trading instead.

Bought at listing, September 2019

+117%

×0.1break even×10×1,000
Worst drop along the way−93%

Bought 5 years ago, September 2021

−77%

×0.1break even×10×1,000
Worst drop along the way−93%

Bought 3 years ago, September 2023

+57%

×0.1break even×10×1,000
Worst drop along the way−83%

Returns and falls are measured on daily closing prices, so a one-minute crash that did not settle cannot enter them. The worst drop is the largest peak-to-trough fall inside that row's window, not the token's all-time worst. Bars sit on a log scale of what one dollar became. Sources: Binance.

What could not be answered

How much of Hedera's fee revenue actually reaches HBAR holders who stake. Hedera's own transaction records total every fee collected without separating what portion went to stakers, to Council members operating nodes, or to the network's own treasury. It is not possible to state a share from the data available.

Whether the recent uptick in fees is a genuine recovery. The fee record available for this assessment only goes back to September 2024, and the last several months show a modest rise after two years of decline. Whether that continues or reverses could not be determined from the period covered.

Whether the roughly 39 institutions named in Hedera's own materials are still all active today. The whitepaper names the Council's members as of its own publication date. Whether the same institutions remain seated, and whether any have left or been replaced, was not confirmed from the sources available for this assessment.

Karinva takes no payment from any project it covers.