Every project on this site carries one of three verdicts about whether it is worth holding for the next ten years.
Hold. A project likely to still be here in a decade, with a token that does real work and no finding that its holders are being extracted from, misled, or replaced by insiders.
Watch. A project that could go either way over the same horizon. The business may be real, but how the project is owned, run, or growing sits in a gray area that keeps the case from settling.
Avoid. A project where specific reasons not to hold have been found. Either the token has no clear reason to exist, or the way it works or is governed carries a defect that survives every argument in its favour.
None of these verdicts is a price call: a Hold does not mean buy now, and an Avoid does not mean sell now. Each is a judgment about the token itself, not the company or the technology behind it. A company can sign a client every week, and none of that revenue has to reach its token; a technology can be sound while the token routed through it has no clear job.
The token is what a person is buying, and the token is what these pages judge.
Why HYPE exists
HYPE pays for a few real things. Holding it lets someone vote on changes to how Hyperliquid works. Validators, the computers that confirm trades and keep the exchange running, are required to stake it. It also unlocks discounts on trading fees and pays for computation on the underlying blockchain.
Beyond those uses, HYPE's price is meant to track the exchange's own success through a specific mechanism: money the exchange takes in gets used to buy HYPE on the open market and then destroy it, permanently. That mechanism is covered in full two sections down.
The money grew fast, peaked, and pulled back
Over the trailing year, Hyperliquid's exchange took in $969,617,850 in fees. That figure is measured cleanly, with 99.7% of the days in the year covered and only one day of staleness.
The shape of that money is a real story, not just a number. Monthly fees grew from about $11M in the exchange's first partial month of operation, December 2024, to a peak of $144,971,672 in August 2025. Then they pulled back, and by mid-2026 monthly fees had settled into a lower but still substantial range, roughly $55 to 80 million a month. That pullback lines up with a real, documented event: over roughly four months in 2025, Hyperliquid's share of on-chain perpetual futures trading fell from about 71% to about 38%, as competitors gained ground. That 38% figure was a low point in a volatile series, not a permanent state; later reporting shows Hyperliquid's position recovering afterward.
Two things are both true here. Hyperliquid faced a real competitive threat serious enough to show up clearly in its own revenue, and its fee income remains large by any standard even after that pullback.
Source: Hyperliquid fees, DefiLlama
Hyperliquid's monthly fees, Dec 2024 to Aug 2026
Total exchange fees collected each month. Fees grew steadily, peaked in August 2025, then pulled back through the market-share loss described below, settling into a lower but still substantial range since.
Hyperliquid's share of on-chain perpetuals trading
Share of on-chain perpetual futures volume, over roughly four months in 2025 as competitors gained ground. This was a September 2025 low point, not the current state; share recovered afterward.
Almost none of that money is kept by anyone in charge
Of the $969,617,850 in fees, Hyperliquid's own revenue, the portion left after paying the people who supply liquidity to the exchange's vault, comes to $728,353,798. Every single dollar of that revenue is measured as going to HYPE holders, through the buyback-and-burn mechanism described earlier. The amount kept by any protocol entity, a company, a foundation, anyone, is measured at exactly $0, at every time horizon checked: the most recent day, week, month, year, and since the exchange's founding.
Separately, $167,239,739 of the fee total goes to the outside investors who supply the capital Hyperliquid's trading vault uses to operate, a cost of running the exchange rather than a profit kept by anyone.
A zero percent protocol take rate is a genuinely rare finding. It does not mean nobody benefits from Hyperliquid's success. It means the benefit flows entirely to HYPE holders through the token's own value, rather than to a company's bank account.
Source: Hyperliquid fees, DefiLlama
The price, against the earning
Hyperliquid's market value, the price of every HYPE in existence multiplied together, is $16,317,691,906. Divide that by the annualised fee run-rate from the most recent three months and Hyperliquid trades at roughly 20.94 times its current yearly fee income.
For comparison, a wireless network project this framework has used as its example of an extreme, speculative valuation traded at roughly 87,000 times its own fees. Hyperliquid's multiple is more than three thousand times smaller than that. Among every project this framework has assessed, this is the closest any of them has come to being priced in line with what it currently earns.
Source: Hyperliquid fees, DefiLlama; Hyperliquid on CoinGecko
Hyperliquid's price against what it earns in fees
Market value divided by yearly fee income. Hyperliquid trades at roughly 21 times its annualised fees, closer to its current earnings than any other project assessed.
The supply is capped, and most of what's unassigned hasn't been explained
HYPE's maximum supply is fixed at 1,000,000,000 tokens, and it cannot be raised. Of the portion already assigned to a purpose, 79.9% went to a one-time public airdrop at the exchange's launch, 16.2% funds the Hyper Foundation's own budget and community grants, 2.5% rewards validators, and 1.4% belongs to the exchange's core team. That team share is frozen: it cannot grow beyond 1.4% of the assigned portion.
Here is what "assigned portion" leaves out. 611,940,539 HYPE, 61.2% of the entire maximum supply, sits in a category with no stated purpose yet, including a specific line item labelled "Core Contributors (TBD)" that carries no percentage at all. The Hyper Foundation has publicly addressed part of its token supply before: in December 2025, a validator vote confirmed roughly 37 million HYPE from a separate fund as permanently destroyed. That vote said nothing about this 611,940,539-token bucket. Beyond a one-year lockup mentioned in a 2024 legal document, nothing about what this bucket becomes, or when, has been made public.
The clean 1.4% figure is real and it is frozen. It is also not the number to focus on. The 61.2% with no stated destination is where the actual uncertainty about who ends up owning HYPE lives.
Source: Hyperliquid emissions, DefiLlama; Hyper Foundation public statements
What HYPE's supply is assigned to, and what isn't
Share of the 1 billion HYPE maximum supply with a stated purpose, versus the share with none. The frozen 1.4% team share sits inside the assigned portion.
Who controls the exchange and the blockchain under it
A fixed set of 27 validators, ranked by how much they have staked, runs Hyperliquid's blockchain. The company's founders remain the exchange's active leaders rather than having stepped back. The software that runs those validators is not open to public review, unlike the trading interface itself, so nobody outside the organization can independently verify what the validating computers actually do.
The Hyper Foundation, the organization behind the exchange, has stated it can stop supporting any validator's participation at any time, at its own discretion. It has also disconnected the network entirely at least once, to manage what it described as a crisis. Both are real exercises of centralized authority over a system marketed as decentralized.
Hyperliquid's price data for trades comes from its own validators reporting a weighted average of what each of them observes, rather than from an outside, independent source. That design was exploited in practice: on 13 November 2025, an attacker manipulated the price used for a token called POPCAT, causing a $4.9 million loss to the exchange's own liquidity vault.
Source: CoinDesk, 13 Nov 2025; Halborn post-mortem
Two other incidents, and neither one was Hyperliquid's own failure
Two more security events appear in the public record around the same period, and both are failures of something other than Hyperliquid itself.
On 27 September 2025, a lending protocol called Hyperdrive, built by an outside team on top of Hyperliquid's blockchain, lost $782,000 to a flaw in its own contract code. Hyperdrive paused trading, fixed the issue, and compensated the users affected. Hyperliquid's own exchange and blockchain were not involved in the flaw.
On 10 October 2025, a single Hyperliquid user lost about $21 million after the private key controlling their own wallet was compromised. This was a theft from an individual's personal security, the same category of event as someone's password being stolen, not a flaw in the exchange or the blockchain.
Source: The Block, Hyperdrive, 27 Sept 2025; The Block, private-key breach, 10 Oct 2025
What Watch means for someone holding HYPE
Hyperliquid is, on the numbers, one of the best-run businesses this framework has measured. On who actually controls it, it is one of the most centralized.
The case in its favour is concrete and unusually well measured. It keeps nothing for itself: every dollar of revenue is measured going to HYPE holders, at every time horizon, with no gap and no estimate standing in for real data. Its price sits closer to what it currently earns than any other project this framework has assessed. Its total supply is capped, and the portion already assigned to insiders is frozen at a small share.
The case against it is just as concrete. Twenty-seven validators run the blockchain, the code they run is not open to outside review, and the exchange's founders remain firmly in charge rather than stepping back. The organization behind it can cut off a validator at will and has shut down the entire network once already. Its own price-reporting design has already been exploited for a real loss. And 61.2% of the total token supply sits in a category with no publicly stated destination.
Watch does not mean buy now. It means the case for holding HYPE over the next ten years depends on trusting the people running Hyperliquid to keep making good decisions, not on structural guarantees that would hold even if they stopped.
Someone who owns HYPE owns a claim on one of the most efficiently run businesses this framework has measured, built on infrastructure that a small group of people, including the exchange's own founders, still fully control.
ROI through the years
Bought and held to 9 September 2026, never traded. Hyperliquid launched in late 2024, but no free price source carries it before January 2026, so this is eight months of history and not a figure since listing.
Bought in January 2026
+146%
Returns and falls are measured on daily closing prices, so a one-minute crash that did not settle cannot enter them. The worst drop is the largest peak-to-trough fall inside that row's window, not the token's all-time worst. Bars sit on a log scale of what one dollar became. Sources: Kraken.
What could not be answered
What the 611,940,539-token unassigned bucket will eventually become. No vesting schedule, allocation plan, or timeline has been made public beyond a one-year lockup mentioned in a 2024 legal document. Whether this ends up broadly distributed or concentrated among insiders could not be determined from the sources available for this assessment.
How concentrated actual ownership of circulating HYPE is. The public blockchain-explorer data this kind of question normally draws on was unavailable for this assessment, across every project it covers, not just Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid's real trading volume, as distinct from its own marketing. The exchange's own materials cite roughly $11 billion in daily volume; the measured figure available for this assessment is $1,812,975,687, about six times lower. Which figure better reflects genuine trading activity could not be settled from the data available.
Karinva takes no payment from any project it covers.